Gross NPL ratio
30.6%
Source: Bangladesh Bank, National Summary Data PageAs of 2025-12-31
Next steps
Macro-financial
Banking stress is classified Critical at 30.6%, observed through 2025-12-31.
Gross NPL ratio
30.6%
Source: Bangladesh Bank, National Summary Data PageAs of 2025-12-31
Assessment
Critical
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation. Benchmark stress score: 97/100.
Source: BDPolicyLab assessmentAs of 2025-12-31
Movement
Unchanged
Approaching cadence limit
Source: BDPolicyLab comparable assessmentsAs of 24 Aug 2026, 04:25
Approaching cadence limit. Cadence basis: quarterly official release.
Source: BDPolicyLab Crisis Orb Updated 2026-08-23
| Evidence | Reading | Observed through | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross NPL ratio | 30.6% | 2025-12-31 | Bangladesh Bank, National Summary Data Page |
Comparable assessments
Current movement: Unchanged
Critical
25 Jul 2026, 07:03 to 24 Aug 2026, 04:25
344 comparable assessments.
Historical assessments are replayed at point-in-time snapshots, with labelled episodes shown where available.
Decision architecture
These are linked records, not recommendations. They identify documented responsibility, published policy work, and modelled instruments that have passed their respective public gates.
Owns
Central bank of Bangladesh responsible for monetary policy, foreign exchange reserve management, banking sector regulation and supervision, currency issuance, and financial stability
Authority: Bangladesh Bank Order 1972 (President's Order No. 127 of 1972)
Monitors
Oversight of nationalized commercial banks, insurance, and financial institutions
Authority: Constitution of Bangladesh, Article 55; Rules of Business 1996
Grounded prescription
Banking Stress: Ring-Fence the Bad Loans Before the Credit Squeeze Stalls InvestmentBangladesh faces a simultaneous NPL surge, interest-spread blow-out, and private-credit collapse; MoF and Bangladesh Bank must move now to recognize losses, recapitalize the weakest banks, and restore credit to productive firms.
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The State of Bangladesh RemittancesThe assessment compares the latest source observation with BDPolicyLab analytical monitoring bands. For this detector, higher readings indicate greater stress; the internal analytical cutoffs are 5.0%, 8.0%, 10.0%, 15.0%. The score is a level-anchored piecewise-linear transformation with state bands at 20, 40, 60, and 85. Benchmark reference: Bands anchored to supervisory NPL stress thresholds (5 / 8 / 10 / 15 percent). The indicator's primary source is identified with the evidence in this card. Forecast ranges are published only as calibrated 80% predictive intervals with an explicit source time unit.
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation.
No public forecast is shown because the validation or time-unit requirement was not met.