Gross NPL ratio
30.6%
Source: Bangladesh Bank, National Summary Data Page · Observed through 2025-12-31
Macro-financial
Banking stress
ব্যাংকিং চাপ
Near-term outlook
Banking stress is classified Critical at 30.6%, observed through 2025-12-31. That observation is about 9 months old. It is older than this source's publication cadence supports (one release per reference quarter, published about a quarter after the quarter ends), so this is the latest published reading, not a current one.
Input age: Evidence observed through 2025-12-31, about 9 months old, which is older than this source's publication cadence supports (one release per reference quarter, published about a quarter after the quarter ends). This is the latest published observation, not a current reading.
Assessment
Critical
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation. Benchmark stress score: 97/100.
Observed through
2025-12-31
Latest valid evidence date, about 9 months old.
Source: BDPolicyLab Crisis Orb · Updated 2026-10-11
Evidence
| Evidence | Reading | Observed through | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross NPL ratio | 30.6% | 2025-12-31 | Bangladesh Bank, National Summary Data Page |
Historical replay
Historical assessments are replayed at point-in-time snapshots, with labelled episodes shown where available. View historical replay data.
Methodology and validation
The assessment compares the latest source observation with BDPolicyLab analytical monitoring bands. For this detector, higher readings indicate greater stress; the internal analytical cutoffs are 5.0%, 8.0%, 10.0%, 15.0%. The score is a level-anchored piecewise-linear transformation with state bands at 20, 40, 60, and 85. Benchmark reference: Bands anchored to supervisory NPL stress thresholds (5 / 8 / 10 / 15 percent). The indicator's primary source is identified with the evidence in this card. Forecast ranges are published only as calibrated 80% predictive intervals with an explicit source time unit.
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation.
No public forecast is shown because the validation or time-unit requirement was not met.