Bangladesh national early warning

Bangladesh Crisis Orb

সংকট পূর্বাভাস · 37 hazards tracked

Policymaker briefing · Right now

Top 5 of 37 tracked hazards

What Bangladesh is facing today

Ranked by current state and policymaker tier. Each item links to the full hazard card with drivers, sparkline and methodology.

01
crisis
Antimicrobial resistance
অ্যান্টিবায়োটিক প্রতিরোধ
who amr mrsa bsi: 77.97
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02
crisis
Child marriage
বাল্যবিবাহ
wb sp m18 2024 fe zs: 51.40
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03
crisis
Gender-based violence
নারীর প্রতি সহিংসতা
who sdgipvlt bgd: 48.90
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04
crisis
Out-of-pocket health spend
স্বাস্থ্যে নিজস্ব ব্যয়
wb oop health pct: 79.31
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05
crisis
Tax / GDP stagnation
কর-জিডিপি স্থবিরতা
Tax revenue (% of GDP): 7.6%
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Bangladesh hazard map · today

full forecast →

Hazard detail

All tracked hazards

Governance

  • elevated short

    ACC weakness

    দুর্নীতি দমন কমিশন দুর্বলতা

    score 40 indicative
    • wb iq cpa tran xq: 2.50

    data through 2026-06-08

Demography

  • calm short

    Aging shock

    বার্ধক্য চাপ

    score 17 indicative
    • wb sp pop 65up to zs: 6.50

    data through 2026-06-08

  • elevated short

    Dhaka in-migration overload

    ঢাকায় অভিবাসন চাপ

    score 52 indicative
    • wb sp urb grow: 2.82

    data through 2026-06-08

  • watch short

    Youth NEET

    যুব নিষ্ক্রিয়তা

    score 22 indicative
    • wb sl uem neet zs: 15.43

    data through 2026-06-08

Environment

  • warning short

    Air-pollution mortality

    বায়ুদূষণজনিত মৃত্যু

    score 80 indicative
    • wb air pollution mortality p5: 143.90

    data through 2026-06-08

  • warning short

    River pollution

    নদী দূষণ

    score 62 indicative
    • wb sh h2o smdw zs: 59.12

    data through 2026-06-08

Public health

  • crisis short

    Antimicrobial resistance

    অ্যান্টিবায়োটিক প্রতিরোধ

    score 95 indicative
    • who amr mrsa bsi: 77.97

    data through 2026-06-08

  • elevated short

    Cancer burden

    ক্যান্সারের বোঝা

    score 51 indicative
    • who cancer death rate agestd: 115.90

    data through 2026-06-08

  • crisis short

    Child marriage

    বাল্যবিবাহ

    score 97 indicative
    • wb sp m18 2024 fe zs: 51.40

    data through 2026-06-08

  • elevated short

    Cardiovascular disease

    হৃদরোগের বোঝা

    score 52 indicative
    • who ncdmort3070: 18.10

    data through 2026-06-08

  • no data short

    Dengue

    ডেঙ্গু

    indicative
    • Weekly dengue cases: n/a

    data through 2026-06-08

  • warning short

    Diabetes prevalence

    ডায়াবেটিস

    score 72 indicative
    • who diabetes prevalence agestd: 17.91

    data through 2026-06-08

  • crisis short

    Gender-based violence

    নারীর প্রতি সহিংসতা

    score 94 indicative
    • who sdgipvlt bgd: 48.90

    data through 2026-06-08

  • watch short

    Hypertension

    উচ্চ রক্তচাপ

    score 39 indicative
    • who hypertension prevalence agestd: 28.80

    data through 2026-06-08

  • watch short

    Maternal mortality plateau

    মাতৃমৃত্যু স্থবিরতা

    score 33 indicative
    • wb maternal mortality ratio: 115.00

    data through 2026-06-08

  • watch short

    Measles / HFMD outbreaks

    হাম, এইচএফএমডি

    score 22 indicative
    • who measles cases bgd: 247.00

    data through 2026-06-08

  • elevated short

    Mental-health treatment gap

    মানসিক স্বাস্থ্য ব্যবধান

    score 54 indicative
    • who psychiatrists per 100k: 0.13

    data through 2026-06-08

  • crisis short

    Out-of-pocket health spend

    স্বাস্থ্যে নিজস্ব ব্যয়

    score 97 indicative
    • wb oop health pct: 79.31

    data through 2026-06-08

  • elevated short

    Road-traffic injuries

    সড়ক দুর্ঘটনা

    score 53 indicative
    • wb sh sta traf p5: 15.30

    data through 2026-06-08

  • elevated short

    Child stunting

    শিশু খর্বতা

    score 47 indicative
    • wb stunting pct: 23.60

    data through 2026-06-08

  • warning short

    Tuberculosis burden

    যক্ষ্মা

    score 72 indicative
    • wb tb incidence per 100k: 221.00

    data through 2026-06-08

Urban services and environment

  • calm nowcast

    Air quality (PM2.5)

    বায়ুর গুণমান

    indicative
    • PM2.5 Dhaka: 26 µg/m³
    • PM2.5 Chittagong: 12 µg/m³
    • PM2.5 Khulna: 26 µg/m³

    data through 2026-06-08

Macro-financial

  • elevated short

    Banking stress

    ব্যাংকিং চাপ

    score 56 indicative

    9.6% NPL ratio

    +24.7% from low 7.7% in 2020

    • Gross NPL ratio: 9.6%

    data through 2026-06-08

  • watch short

    External / BoP / FX

    বৈদেশিক মুদ্রার চাপ

    score 39 indicative

    3.07 mo reserves (months of imports)

    -64.5% from peak 8.66 mo in 2020

    • Reserves (months of imports): 3.07 mo

    data through 2026-06-08

  • warning short

    Debt service rising

    ঋণ পরিশোধ চাপ

    score 64 indicative
    • wb dt tds dect ex zs: 15.77

    data through 2026-06-08

  • warning short

    Inflation regime

    মূল্যস্ফীতি ব্যবস্থা

    score 72 indicative

    10.5% CPI inflation

    +90.9% from low 5.5% in 2016

    • CPI inflation (YoY): 10.5%

    data through 2026-06-08

  • watch short

    Public debt sustainability

    সরকারি ঋণের স্থায়িত্ব

    score 23 indicative

    41.8% debt/GDP

    +47.7% from low 28.3% in 2017

    • Govt gross debt (% of GDP): 42.0%

    data through 2026-06-08

  • watch short

    Real wage erosion

    প্রকৃত মজুরি ক্ষয়

    score 23 indicative
    • wb ne con prvt pc kd zg: 4.71

    data through 2026-06-08

  • elevated short

    Sovereign default scenario

    সার্বভৌম খেলাপি দৃশ্য

    score 44 indicative
    • wb external debt pct gni: 22.25

    data through 2026-06-08

  • crisis short

    Tax / GDP stagnation

    কর-জিডিপি স্থবিরতা

    score 89 indicative

    7.6% tax/GDP

    -15.6% from peak 9.0% in 2012

    • Tax revenue (% of GDP): 7.6%

    data through 2026-06-08

Climate and weather

  • warning nowcast

    Cyclone

    ঘূর্ণিঝড়

    indicative
    • Dhaka 7d max gust: 48 km/h
    • Chittagong 7d max gust: 50 km/h
    • Khulna 7d max gust: 65 km/h

    data through 2026-06-08

  • watch nowcast

    Flash flood (haor)

    হাওরে আকস্মিক বন্যা

    indicative
    • Sunamganj Sadar 72h rain: 150 mm
    • Tahirpur 72h rain: 122 mm
    • Jamalganj 72h rain: 84 mm

    data through 2026-06-08

Technology and cyber

  • watch short

    Digital divide

    ডিজিটাল বিভাজন

    score 37 indicative
    • wb it net user zs: 53.42

    data through 2026-06-08

Human development

  • warning short

    Education underinvestment

    শিক্ষায় কম ব্যয়

    score 83 indicative

    2.0% education/GDP

    -9.1% from peak 2.2% in 2021

    • Education spending (% of GDP): 2.0%

    data through 2026-06-08

  • warning short

    Learning poverty

    শিখন দারিদ্র্য

    score 62 indicative
    • wb learning poverty prim: 51.22

    data through 2026-06-08

  • elevated short

    Teacher quality

    শিক্ষকের গুণমান

    score 44 indicative
    • wb trained teachers primary: 77.88

    data through 2026-06-08

Labor

  • watch short

    Female labor-force participation

    নারী শ্রমশক্তিতে অংশগ্রহণ

    score 24 indicative
    • wb sl tlf cact fe zs: 38.65

    data through 2026-06-08

Watchlist

Tier-1 risks we are not yet detecting in real time

The full crisis taxonomy lists 14 domains where Bangladesh faces a first-order risk that is not yet wired to a live detector on this page. We surface them so a policymaker reading this briefing sees the whole surface, not only what we have measurement for. See methodology for the full list.

Energy and infrastructure
Fuel price hikeGas reserve depletionLNG import dependenceNationwide grid blackoutPower capacity overbuild
Agriculture and food
Aman + Boro compound failureBoro groundwater overuseFood price spikeRice yield plateau
Climate (fast)
Cyclone over Rohingya campsHeatwaveRiverine floodStorm surge
Governance
Corruption (TI CPI)Election integrityEnforced disappearancesJuly-Aug 2024 uprising
Labor
AI / automation hit to RMGInformal sector dominanceLDC-graduation export shockRMG export concentration
Climate (slow)
River erosionSalinity intrusionSea-level rise
Demographic
Demographic dividend closingRohingya camp pressureSecond Rohingya influx
Macro-financial
Capital flightJobless growthRemittance channel disruption
Trade and external
Export concentration (RMG)Hormuz strait disruptionLDC graduation Nov 2026
Environment
Arsenic groundwater
Health (communicable)
Pandemic-X scenario
Health (injury)
Drowning (children)
Security and geopolitics
Myanmar war spillover
Tech and cyber
Internet shutdown