Bangladesh national early warning
Bangladesh Crisis Orb
সংকট পূর্বাভাস · 38 hazards tracked
Policymaker briefing · Right now
Top 5 of 38 tracked hazardsWhat Bangladesh is facing today
Ranked by current state and policymaker tier. Each item links to the full hazard card with drivers, sparkline and methodology.
NPL, lending-deposit spread and private-credit growth jointly off-equilibrium; SOCB recap path and Padma-style resolution outcomes determine the trajectory.
Bangladesh hazard map · today
full forecast →Hazard detail
All tracked hazards
Governance
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elevated short
ACC weakness
দুর্নীতি দমন কমিশন দুর্বলতা
score 40 indicative- wb iq cpa tran xq: 2.50
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
Demography
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calm short
Aging shock
বার্ধক্য চাপ
score 17 indicative- wb sp pop 65up to zs: 6.50
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
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elevated short
Dhaka in-migration overload
ঢাকায় অভিবাসন চাপ
score 52 indicative- wb sp urb grow: 2.82
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
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watch short
Youth NEET
যুব নিষ্ক্রিয়তা
score 22 indicative- wb sl uem neet zs: 15.43
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
Environment
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warning short
Air-pollution mortality
বায়ুদূষণজনিত মৃত্যু
score 80 indicative- wb air pollution mortality p5: 143.90
observed through 2019-12-31, about 6.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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warning short
River pollution
নদী দূষণ
score 62 indicative- wb sh h2o smdw zs: 59.12
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
Public health
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crisis short
MRSA bloodstream infection resistance
MRSA রক্তপ্রবাহ সংক্রমণে প্রতিরোধ
score 95 indicative- who amr mrsa bsi: 77.97
observed through 2023-12-31, about 2.8 years old
last checked 2026-10-11
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elevated short
Cancer burden
ক্যান্সারের বোঝা
score 51 indicative- who cancer death rate agestd: 115.90
observed through 2019-12-31, about 6.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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crisis short
Child marriage
বাল্যবিবাহ
score 97 indicative- wb sp m18 2024 fe zs: 51.40
observed through 2019-12-31, about 6.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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elevated short
Cardiovascular disease
হৃদরোগের বোঝা
score 52 indicative- who ncdmort3070: 18.10
observed through 2021-12-31, about 4.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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warning short
Diabetes prevalence
ডায়াবেটিস
score 72 indicative- who diabetes prevalence agestd: 17.91
observed through 2022-12-31, about 3.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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crisis short
Gender-based violence
নারীর প্রতি সহিংসতা
score 94 indicative- who sdgipvlt bgd: 48.90
observed through 2023-12-31, about 2.8 years old
last checked 2026-10-11
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watch short
Hypertension
উচ্চ রক্তচাপ
score 39 indicative- who hypertension prevalence agestd: 28.80
observed through 2019-12-31, about 6.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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watch short
Maternal mortality
মাতৃমৃত্যু
score 33 indicative- wb maternal mortality ratio: 115.00
observed through 2023-12-31, about 2.8 years old
last checked 2026-10-11
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watch short
Measles / HFMD outbreaks
হাম, এইচএফএমডি
score 22 indicative- who measles cases bgd: 247.00
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
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elevated short
Mental-health treatment gap
মানসিক স্বাস্থ্য ব্যবধান
score 54 indicative- who psychiatrists per 100k: 0.13
observed through 2016-12-31, about 9.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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crisis short
Out-of-pocket health spend
স্বাস্থ্যে নিজস্ব ব্যয়
score 97 indicative- wb oop health pct: 79.31
observed through 2023-12-31, about 2.8 years old
last checked 2026-10-11
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elevated short
Road-traffic injuries
সড়ক দুর্ঘটনা
score 53 indicative- wb sh sta traf p5: 15.30
observed through 2019-12-31, about 6.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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elevated short
Child stunting
শিশু খর্বতা
score 47 indicative- wb stunting pct: 23.60
observed through 2022-12-31, about 3.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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warning short
Tuberculosis burden
যক্ষ্মা
score 72 indicative- wb tb incidence per 100k: 221.00
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
Urban services and environment
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warning nowcast
Air quality (PM2.5)
বায়ুর গুণমান
indicative- PM2.5 Khulna: 132 µg/m³
- PM2.5 Dhaka: 102 µg/m³
- PM2.5 Chittagong: 46 µg/m³
observed through 2026-10-11, 0 hours old
last checked 2026-10-11
Macro-financial
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crisis short
Banking stress
ব্যাংকিং চাপ
score 97 indicative30.6% NPL ratio
+297.4% from low 7.7% in 2020
- Gross NPL ratio: 30.6%
observed through 2025-12-31, about 9 months old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
-
watch short
External / BoP / FX
বৈদেশিক মুদ্রার চাপ
score 22 indicative3.91 mo reserves (months of imports)
-54.8% from peak 8.66 mo in 2020
- Reserves (months of imports): 3.91 mo
observed through 2025-12-31, about 9 months old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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warning short
Debt-service pressure
ঋণ পরিশোধ চাপ
score 64 indicative- wb dt tds dect ex zs: 15.77
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
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elevated short
Inflation regime
মূল্যস্ফীতি ব্যবস্থা
score 58 indicative8.8% CPI inflation
+60.0% from low 5.5% in 2016
- CPI inflation (YoY): 8.8%
observed through 2025-12-31, about 9 months old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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watch short
Public debt sustainability
সরকারি ঋণের স্থায়িত্ব
score 21 indicative41.8% debt/GDP
+47.7% from low 28.3% in 2017
- Govt gross debt (% of GDP): 41.0%
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
-
watch short
Real wage erosion
প্রকৃত মজুরি ক্ষয়
score 23 indicative- wb ne con prvt pc kd zg: 4.71
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
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elevated short
Sovereign default scenario
সার্বভৌম খেলাপি দৃশ্য
score 44 indicative- wb external debt pct gni: 22.25
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
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crisis short
Tax / GDP stagnation
কর-জিডিপি স্থবিরতা
score 89 indicative7.6% tax/GDP
-15.6% from peak 9.0% in 2012
- Tax revenue (% of GDP): 7.6%
observed through 2021-12-31, about 4.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
Climate and weather
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warning nowcast
Cyclone
ঘূর্ণিঝড়
indicative- Dhaka 7d max gust: 45 km/h
- Barisal 7d max gust: 43 km/h
- Chittagong 7d max gust: 42 km/h
observed through 2026-10-11, 0 hours old
last checked 2026-10-11
-
calm nowcast
Flash flood (haor)
হাওরে আকস্মিক বন্যা
indicative- Tahirpur 72h rain: 16 mm
- Habiganj Sadar 72h rain: 16 mm
- Dharmapasha 72h rain: 16 mm
observed through 2026-10-11, 0 hours old
last checked 2026-10-11
-
calm nowcast
Landslide
ভূমিধস
indicative- Chittagong City maximum 24h rainfall: 11 mm
- Rangamati maximum 24h rainfall: 8 mm
- Coxsbazar maximum 24h rainfall: 7 mm
observed through 2026-10-11, 0 hours old
last checked 2026-10-11
-
elevated nowcast
Riverine flood
নদীর বন্যা
indicative- Companyganj water level relative to danger level: -0.25 m
- Daulatkhan water level relative to danger level: -0.67 m
- Barishal water level relative to danger level: -0.78 m
observed through 2026-10-10, 3 hours old
last checked 2026-10-11
Technology and cyber
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watch short
Digital divide
ডিজিটাল বিভাজন
score 37 indicative- wb it net user zs: 53.42
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
Human development
-
warning short
Education underinvestment
শিক্ষায় কম ব্যয়
score 83 indicative2.0% education/GDP
-9.1% from peak 2.2% in 2021
- Education spending (% of GDP): 2.0%
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
-
warning short
Learning poverty
শিখন দারিদ্র্য
score 62 indicative- wb learning poverty prim: 51.22
observed through 2022-12-31, about 3.8 years old · older than source cadence
last checked 2026-10-11
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elevated short
Teacher quality
শিক্ষকের গুণমান
score 44 indicative- wb trained teachers primary: 77.88
observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
Labor
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watch short
Female labor-force participation
নারী শ্রমশক্তিতে অংশগ্রহণ
score 24 indicative- wb sl tlf cact fe zs: 38.65
observed through 2025-12-31, about 9 months old
last checked 2026-10-11
Chronic burdens
Slow-burn indicators a policymaker should track
Tier-1 chronic regimes with the most recent observation and the 5-year direction. Draft evidence from 2000-2026; every row carries a source URL and a confidence flag (see methodology).
Watchlist
Tier-1 risks we are not yet detecting in real time
The full crisis taxonomy lists 14 domains where Bangladesh faces a first-order risk that is not yet wired to a live detector on this page. We surface them so a policymaker reading this briefing sees the whole surface, not only what we have measurement for. See methodology for the full list.