Tax / GDP stagnation [short]
কর-জিডিপি স্থবিরতা
Macro-financial
state
crisis
score
89.5
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 6.27 to 8.83 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax revenue (% of GDP) | 7.6% | - | 1.00 | 2021-12-31 |
Notes
tax_gdp_low: Tax revenue (percent of GDP) 7.6% (as of 2021-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. Bands anchored to the 15 percent tax-to-GDP development benchmark (World Bank, IMF). Forecast (local_level, 21 obs): 7.8% in +3 steps; indicative range [6.3%, 8.8%] (interval coverage not validated, measured 44%). median trend reaches the warning line in about +1 step(s) Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.