Tax revenue (percent of GDP)
7.6%
Source: World Bank World Development IndicatorsAs of 2021-12-31
Next steps
Macro-financial
Tax / GDP stagnation is classified Critical at 7.6%, observed through 2021-12-31.
Tax revenue (percent of GDP)
7.6%
Source: World Bank World Development IndicatorsAs of 2021-12-31
Assessment
Critical
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation. Benchmark stress score: 89/100.
Source: BDPolicyLab assessmentAs of 2021-12-31
Movement
Unchanged
Approaching cadence limit
Source: BDPolicyLab comparable assessmentsAs of 24 Aug 2026, 01:25
Approaching cadence limit. Cadence basis: annual official series with publication lag.
Source: BDPolicyLab Crisis Orb Updated 2026-08-23
| Evidence | Reading | Observed through | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax revenue (percent of GDP) | 7.6% | 2021-12-31 | World Bank World Development IndicatorsGC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS |
Comparable assessments
Current movement: Unchanged
Critical
25 Jul 2026, 04:03 to 24 Aug 2026, 01:25
341 comparable assessments.
Decision architecture
These are linked records, not recommendations. They identify documented responsibility, published policy work, and modelled instruments that have passed their respective public gates.
Owns
Central authority for tax administration in Bangladesh, responsible for income tax, VAT, and customs administration under the Internal Resources Division of the Ministry of Finance
Authority: National Board of Revenue Order 1972 (President's Order No. 76 of 1972)
Monitors
Domestic revenue mobilization, tax policy, and NBR oversight
Authority: Constitution of Bangladesh, Article 55; Rules of Business 1996
Grounded prescription
Breaking the Sub-8 Percent Tax/GDP Trap: A Revenue Mobilization Plan for BangladeshBangladesh's tax/GDP ratio is stuck below 8 percent and falling (NBR 6.56 percent in FY25), the lowest in South Asia; this brief sequences MoF-led actions on NBR reform, base broadening, and VAT enforcement to reverse the decline.
Research · Related
The State of Bangladesh Prices & InflationThe assessment compares the latest source observation with BDPolicyLab analytical monitoring bands. For this detector, lower readings indicate greater stress; the internal analytical cutoffs are 8.0%, 10.0%, 12.0%, 15.0%. The score is a level-anchored piecewise-linear transformation with state bands at 20, 40, 60, and 85. Benchmark reference: Bands anchored to the 15 percent tax-to-GDP development benchmark (World Bank, IMF). The indicator's primary source is identified with the evidence in this card. Forecast ranges are published only as calibrated 80% predictive intervals with an explicit source time unit.
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation.
No public forecast is shown because the validation or time-unit requirement was not met.
Basis: Customs duty rates are set by SRO under the Customs Act 2023 (Act No. 57 of 2023, in force 6 June 2024) and the annual Finance Act. Modelled as a proportional rise in the domestic price of the sector's imported intermediates, propagated through the Leontief cost-push price model.
Model limits
Basis: Supplementary duty schedules under the VAT and Supplementary Duty Act 2012. Priced as a consumer-price change on the category using HIES 2022 budget shares.
Model limits
Basis: Standard and reduced rates set under the VAT and Supplementary Duty Act 2012 (Act XLVII of 2012) and annual SROs. Priced as a consumer-price change on the category, with the burden distributed across deciles using HIES 2022 budget shares. Note the unit is the change in CONSUMER PRICE in percent, not a rate in percentage points: a 2.5pp rise on a 15% base is a ~2.17% price change.
Model limits