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CGE trade policy analysis for Bangladesh

CGE trade policy analysis for Bangladesh

Food basket cost by division, rent index, utility prices, and real purchasing power for bottom two quintiles.

গ্লোবাল অটোমেশন এটলাস (Garg, Crosta ও Baier, ২০২৬) ১২৪ দেশের কাজের অটোমেশন-ঝুঁকি; বাংলাদেশ ও পাঁচ গভর্নটুইন সমকক্ষ

Bangladesh 83K+ cumulative peacekeepers across 45 missions; ~5,500 active across 9 missions May 2026; UNSC non-permanent in 1979-80 and 2000-01; not in Jan 2026 cohort; ~$95.6M annual UN reimbursement; FM Khalilur Rahman reaffirmed commitment May 2026.

Chittagong CY2025 record 3.41M TEU; Laldia Container Terminal at CHITTAGONG (not Mongla) APM Terminals $550M deal Nov 17 2025; Payra full ops Jul 2026 target threatened by Rabnabad channel siltation (10.5m to ~6m); Matarbari Phase 1 JICA Tk 24,300 crore, 16m draft, commercial ops 2030.

NSPD 2021 counts 4.6M PWDs (2.8%); HIES 2022 Washington Group yields 9.4M (5.71%). Employment quota (1%) fills at 2.8% utilisation. 60% of children with disabilities out of school. Draft Social Protection Framework (Nov 2024) unenacted as of May 2026.

Bangladesh has ~17 million elderly (60+) in 2025 (~9.5% of population), growing to 45 million (22%) by 2050. Old-age allowance covers ~36% at Tk 650/month. 1.2 million dementia cases (Lancet 2023), no long-term care framework, and near-total policy inattention documented by Springer (2024).

Bangladesh's interim government (2024-2026) restructured the Bangladesh Public Service Commission and achieved measurable gains in BCS examination efficiency: application fees cut from BDT 700 to BDT 200, examination costs reduced by 80 percent, and two special BCS examinations cleared in approximately three months each, per BPSC's own reform report 'From Gridlock to Governance Renewal' (November 2025). When Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's BNP government took office on February 17, 2026, the structural problem it inherited -- politicized appointment of senior civil servants -- was not addressed and in some dimensions expanded. Twenty-five of 85 secretaries now hold contractual positions, nearly three times the historical norm of around 10 percent, with all eight senior secretaries aged 65 to 75 serving on contract. Cabinet Secretary Dr Nasimul Gani conducts the appointment process under a system that has drawn open frustration from career cadre officers. Bangladesh's WGI Government Effectiveness percentile rank stands at 26.89 (2023 vintage, World Bank), with an estimate of -0.70 on the -2.5 to +2.5 scale, unchanged in direction from the prior administration. Exam process modernization has not translated into bureaucratic depoliticization.

Dhaka BRT-3 shelved by interim govt ECNEC July 27 2025 (223% cost overrun); MRT Line 1 delayed to 2030 (4-year slip); $5B annual congestion cost; WHO 31,578 road deaths/yr (BRTA admin only 5,024-5,856); Minister Shaikh Rabiul Alam holds 4 portfolios.

5G launched Sep 1 2025 by Robi + Grameenphone; BTRC 700 MHz auction Jan 14 2026 won by GP alone (10 MHz Tk 2,370 crore reserve); Teletalk got 10 MHz via ministerial directive; AONB court blocks 12 MHz; GSMA fee 16% of revenue (55% with all levies).

Child labour rose to 9.2% of children aged 5-17 (MICS 2025), up from 6.8% in 2019 -- 1.2 million additional children. Informal sector dominates; enforcement gap persists despite 724 DIFE inspector posts.

Bangladesh BIMSTEC chair April 4 2025 to April 2027 (inherited by BNP Feb 17 2026), secretariat in Dhaka since Sept 13 2014, FTA framework signed Feb 8 2004 still stuck after 22 years (target 2027), 267-project $124.4B Transport Master Plan 2018-2028.

Bangladesh's Anti-Corruption Commission (Amendment) Ordinance, 2025, promulgated by the interim government, created a seven-member search committee for commissioner appointments to reduce executive capture of the ACC. When the BNP-led government of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman took office on February 17, 2026, it allowed the ordinance to lapse rather than convert it into permanent law, a process completed by April 2026 under the constitutional 30-day rule after parliament's first sitting on March 12, 2026. The stated grounds, that the search committee's composition curtailed the government's appointment authority, directly contradict BNP's own election manifesto commitment to ACC independence. Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) flagged the reversal at a press conference on March 5, 2026, calling the lapse the most urgent governance failure of the new administration. Bangladesh's Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 score stands at 24 out of 100, ranked 150th among 182 countries, the second lowest in South Asia. ACC filed 451 cases in 2024, a five-year high, but the conviction rate fell to 47 percent, the lowest in eight years. Without institutional independence, investigative momentum and conviction quality both face structural limits.

BPDB Tk 55,660 crore FY25 shortfall (+18.3% YoY), Tk 38,600 crore govt subsidy, Petrobangla Tk 8,900 crore FY25 (+48%), Biman FY24 OPERATIONAL profit Tk 1,556 crore (not loss), BPC post-March 2024 pricing reform, BNP 2-yr tariff pledge vs BPDB 17-21% May 2026 hike proposal.

Bangladesh Railway Tk 15.74B projected loss FY25-26, spending Tk 1.86 per Tk earned, 49% post vacancy (23,137 of 47,637 sanctioned), Padma Rail Link Dhaka-Jashore 172km opened Nov 2024, ADB $2B+ pipeline.

Bangladesh's legal framework governing online speech has cycled through three iterations in seven years: the Digital Security Act 2018 (DSA), the Cyber Security Act 2023 (CSA), and the Cyber Security Ordinance 2025 (CSO), gazetted on May 21, 2025, by the interim government of Muhammad Yunus. The CSO dropped nine of the most widely abused criminal provisions but retained vaguely worded offences, including a prohibition on content that constitutes communal hate speech and 'creates anxiety' (Section 26). Reporters Without Borders ranked Bangladesh 165th of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom Index (score 27.64), 149th in 2025 (score 33.71, up 16 places), and 152nd in 2026 (down 3 places), reflecting a volatile post-transition press environment. The BNP government of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, sworn in February 17, 2026, has not enacted a permanent parliamentary replacement for the CSO; it governs Bangladesh's cyber-speech regime as an executive ordinance with no fixed legislative sunset. This brief examines the legislative lineage, the RSF benchmark trajectory, the AI-crime provisions introduced by the CSO, and the unresolved policy vacuum under BNP.

10 years of BRI in Bangladesh: $40B pledged vs $4.45B disbursed across 35 projects, ~7% share of $77.28B external debt, PowerChina Teesta $550M loan endorsed May 2026 by BNP, FM Khalilur Rahman Beijing visit May 5-7 2026.

DSEX 5,205 (May 2026 recovery from 16.49% 2024 drop), BSEC reform package May 14 2026 under PM Tarique's 180-day program, Stabilization Fund Act 2026 in draft, Tk 6.6 lakh crore equity market cap, Tk 42,400 crore sukuk outstanding.

NBR split into Revenue Policy + Management Divisions May 13 2025, FY26-27 target Tk 6.04 lakh crore (21% jump), tax-to-GDP 7.4%, 11.2M TINs vs 4M return filers, 8 transfer-pricing officers nationally.

Moody's B2 negative vs S&P B+ stable vs Fitch B+ negative (May 13 2026 downgrade), $5.5B IMF EFF/ECF/RSF program with 6th tranche pending June 2026, $34B reserves, $113.6B external debt.

Bangladesh hosts 1.18 million Rohingya refugees -- the largest single-country refugee population in the world -- at an annual economic cost exceeding $1.22 billion. In April 2026, the World Food Programme introduced a needs-based tiered food assistance system (replacing the previous flat ration) following USAID funding withdrawal under the new US administration, reducing monthly food support for the majority of refugees to $7-$10 per person. The 2025-2026 Joint Response Plan, which appeals for $934.5 million, was only 46 percent funded as of December 2025. Myanmar has verified just 354,751 of the 829,036 cases Bangladesh shared for repatriation, and the ongoing conflict in Myanmar makes voluntary return impossible on any near-term horizon. The BNP government of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, sworn February 17, 2026, has formed a new national coordination committee on Rohingya issues but has not yet announced a revised repatriation framework. The Diplomat (April 2026) named this accumulation of stalled diplomacy, collapsing aid, and domestic pressure the 'Rohingya Diplomacy Exhaustion Trap.' This brief maps the humanitarian, fiscal, and diplomatic dimensions of the crisis and assesses Bangladesh's policy options.

28M Bangladeshi adults affected (NIMH 2018-19), 92.3% treatment gap, 0.21 psychiatrists per 100k vs WHO 1.0 benchmark, 0.44% of health budget, post-July 2024 trauma load unmeasured.

On April 9, 2026, Bangladesh's parliament passed the 'Supreme Court Judge Appointment (Repeal) Bill, 2026', scrapping the interim government's Judicial Appointment Council ordinance without enacting any successor framework. The repeal landed against a backdrop of 47.42 lakh (4.742 million) pending cases as of December 31, 2025, a 6.7 percent rise from the 44.44 lakh backlog recorded on July 1, 2024, according to Supreme Court of Bangladesh case-disposal statements. With the High Court Division operating at 103 judges against a much larger needed strength and one judge serving roughly 95,000 citizens, the governance deficit is structural. Bangladesh's WJP Rule of Law Index 2024 rank of 127 out of 142 countries, paired with a criminal-justice subscore of 0.31 out of 1.00, quantifies how far the system sits from regional peers. This brief maps the legislative gap created by the repeal, the backlog trajectory, and the institutional bottlenecks blocking Bangladesh's judiciary from closing that gap.

NCDs at 71% of deaths, expired 2018-2025 Action Plan with no successor, hospital-only cancer registry (167,256 cases 2022), and 74% out-of-pocket health spending.

Hasina extradition impasse, 1996 Ganga Water Treaty expiring December 12, 2026, Teesta India-vs-China optionality, and BSF border-killings trajectory.

Rooppur fuel load completed May 12, 2026; 2,400 MW capacity, $11.38B Russian loan with repayment deferred to Sept 15, 2028; energy-mix and 30-year debt-service implications.

Bangladesh Bank's first formal NBFI liquidation under Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025: 5 NBFIs wound up from July 2026, Tk 5,000 crore principal-only depositor protection.

Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal-1 (ICT-1) convicted Sheikh Hasina in absentia on November 17, 2025, sentencing her to death for crimes against humanity tied to the killing of approximately 1,400 protesters during the July-August 2024 uprising. The BNP-led government of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, sworn in February 17, 2026, has staked significant political capital on the trials. Yet three concurrent pressures now challenge the proceedings: a March 2026 corruption scandal inside the prosecution, a 37-point fair-trial violation notice from UK law firm Kingsley Napley served on March 30, 2026, and a February 2025 OHCHR fact-finding report that documented the scale of killing but also raised due-process concerns. This brief maps the legal framework, the specific procedural deficits, and the governance implications for Bangladesh's transitional justice credibility.

OOP burden at 79%, maternal mortality 115/100k, neonatal mortality trend, WASH coverage, disease burden, and UHC Roadmap 2026-2035.

Commodity price pass-through, remittance-reserves buffer, trade openness and growth, and external shock vulnerability.

HDI decomposition: health, education, income contributions. District-level variation and multidimensional poverty overlap.

WGI-FDI correlation, NPL-governance link, regulatory quality impact on credit allocation, and institutional reform scenarios.

2.5M annual labor market entrants vs TVET output of 300K. Skills mismatch by sector, employer survey gaps, and wage premiums.

Salinity impact on Aman rice yield, flood damage to Boro crop, heat stress on labor productivity, and adaptation cost estimates.

Gender parity in enrollment but 38% female LFP. RMG empowerment paradox, maternal health gains, GBV burden, land rights, and policy gaps.

Female labor force participation 38%, RMG workforce feminization, maternal mortality decline, GBV prevalence, and political representation.

1.2% of GDP on defense, UN peacekeeping contributions (top 5), force modernization, maritime security, and border management.

13M overseas workers sending $23B/year. Gulf concentration, recruitment cost exploitation, feminization trends, return reintegration, and diaspora engagement policy.

13M+ Bangladeshis abroad, migration cost burden, skill composition, return migration patterns, and diaspora investment.

2.5% of GDP on safety nets, 28M beneficiaries, targeting leakage, old age allowance coverage, and G2P digitization.

16,000 tons/day municipal waste, 3% recycling rate, Dhaka landfill pressure, e-waste growth, and informal sector role.

Frozen food exports, dairy processing, rice milling modernization, food safety certification, and cold chain infrastructure.

750+ MFIs, 35M borrowers, average loan size, interest rate caps, SME credit gap, and digital lending growth.

Road network density, railway modal share, Chittagong port throughput, inland waterway freight, and logistics performance index.

185M mobile subscribers, 4G coverage, spectrum allocation, tower sharing, broadband penetration, and 5G readiness.

Dhaka apartment prices, construction permits, cement/steel demand, housing affordability ratio, and RAJUK development control.

118,813 km2 EEZ, $6.2B marine economy potential. Fisheries, shipping, offshore energy, coastal tourism, and governance gaps.

Maritime trade routes, exclusive economic zone resources, marine fisheries, port development, and ocean governance framework.

Tourist arrivals, revenue per visitor, Cox's Bazar/Sundarbans/Sylhet potential, infrastructure gaps, and visa policy barriers.

40,000+ workshops, import substitution in auto parts and electrical goods, backward linkage to RMG, and technology upgrading needs.

Ceramics tableware exports ($100M+), plastics manufacturing ecosystem, import substitution progress, and quality certification gaps.

$1.4B IT/ITES exports, 700K freelancers, Hi-Tech Park occupancy, startup funding landscape, and workforce pipeline.

$1.2B export sector. Savar tannery relocation, CETP compliance, value chain upgrading, and EU market access.

$47B industry at a crossroads: wage pressure, automation risk, sustainability mandates, backward linkages, and post-LDC tariff exposure.

RMG export structure, compliance post-Rana Plaza, wage trends, backward linkage progress, and buyer diversification.

4th largest producer. Raw jute vs diversified products, global demand shift to biodegradable packaging, and mill modernization needs.

$300M export sector. Order book, yard capacity, ship recycling (Sitakunda), IMO compliance, and green shipbuilding potential.

Remittance Flows and Household Welfare in Bangladesh This report examines household welfare. This finding is based on did using data from Bangladesh Bank, World Bank, and survey data. The findings ha

$3.5B domestic market, 98% local supply, API import dependence, 80-90% API dependency. TRIPS LDC waiver (end-2033 for LDCs) expires at Bangladesh graduation (Nov 2026); BD lobbying for 2029 post-graduation extension.

Water per capita 0 m3/yr (+0), extraction 30 BCM vs 75 BCM recharge. Overdraft -45.0 BCM (-60%). Arsenic: 14% wells, Barind drop 15m.

Agriculture 11.5% of GDP (+0.0pp), cereal yield 4,750 kg/ha (+0.0%), food inflation 9.7%, rice production 39.1M MT.

8,000 kilns producing 33 billion bricks/yr. Only 42% use clean technology. PM2.5 at 79.9 ug/m3.

Stunting 24.0%, wasting 9.8%, underweight 22.6% (BDHS 2022). Stunting declined 18.4pp over the past decade.

National poverty headcount 18.7% (HIES 2022). Unknown is the poorest division (0.0%), Unknown the least poor (0.0%). District MPI analysis across 0 districts reveals persistent northwest-coastal deprivation belt.

Water health score 87.4/100, transboundary risk 85.5/100. 8.0M ha wetlands support 20M haor residents.

Satellite elevation analysis shows 50,317 km2 (34.1% of land) within the 5m low elevation coastal zone, with 5,260,002 people directly exposed to sea level rise.

Sentinel-5P TROPOMI analysis across 10 cities reveals a pollution index of 64.7/100, with Narayanganj recording the highest NO2 concentration.

Combined erosion of 5,500 ha/yr across major rivers. Jamuna accounts for 29.1% of total erosion.

Satellite analysis of forest loss, vegetation health, water bodies, and rainfall patterns. Environmental health score: 58.7/100.

Satellite analysis of nighttime lights, built-up expansion, urban heat islands, and air quality across 10 cities. Urbanization pressure score: 0.0/100.

Shipping disruption costs, energy price pass-through, remittance corridor risk, and export market exposure from Middle East conflict.

98% primary enrollment but low learning outcomes. Gender parity achieved, tertiary bottleneck, TVET gaps, and education-to-employment pipeline.

28 GW installed capacity, 97% grid access, 62% gas dependence, renewable targets, and stranded asset risks from coal pipeline.

130M+ internet users, mobile money revolution, e-governance rank #111, digital startup ecosystem, and 4IR workforce readiness.

WGI composite at bottom quartile, 3.7M case backlog, 1.4M civil servants. Institutional capacity, decentralization, judiciary, and reform scenarios.

WGI percentile ranks, CPI score, judicial backlog, RTI compliance, and e-governance adoption.

Bank account penetration, bKash/Nagad transaction volumes, microfinance outreach, and gender gaps in access.

Cross-domain satellite and macroeconomic analysis of flood exposure, rainfall variability, temperature trends, and agricultural vulnerability. Climate vulnerability score: 26.8/100.

ND-GAIN vulnerability rank, disaster damage trends, cyclone shelter coverage, and adaptation spending.

Internet penetration, mobile financial services, e-governance readiness, and ICT export growth.

Labor force participation, sectoral employment shares, wage trends, and informal economy size.

Net enrollment, learning outcomes (PISA proxy), public spending, and skill-employment mismatch.

6.2 GW installed solar, SHS penetration, IRENA capacity data, SREDA targets, and grid parity analysis.

Bangladesh spends 2.6% of GDP on health with 62% out-of-pocket. Disease burden, workforce gaps, UHC progress, and financing options.

Health expenditure (% GDP), out-of-pocket burden, disease profile, and facility coverage gaps.

NPL ratios by bank type, capital adequacy, credit growth, and Bangladesh Bank policy actions.

Power generation capacity, grid losses, fuel mix, per-capita consumption, and load shedding.

Monthly inflows by corridor, transfer costs, hundi share estimates, and reserve impact.

HDI components, poverty headcount, inequality (Gini), and SDG progress tracking.

NBR revenue collection, ADP spending, deficit financing mix, and debt-to-GDP trajectory.

CPI basket breakdown, food vs non-food inflation, and real wage purchasing power.

GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate, reserves, and credit trends from Bangladesh Bank and BBS.