When to bring the Boro paddy in.

A pre-monsoon flash flood off the Meghalaya hills can drown a haor Boro crop in a day, before the surge is visible on the ground. This page reads the 72-hour rainfall forecast over the upper Meghna catchment and translates it into a per-upazila harvest urgency: how fast farmers should be cutting paddy, upazila by upazila across the Sunamganj and Habiganj pilot.

As of 2026-08-23 · outside Boro harvest window

Live

Latest source data is available.

The current state, upstream forecast, pilot upazilas, daily forecast, thresholds, and source vintage are available.

Worst current state

Watch

Across pilot upazilas

Source: Open-Meteo ECMWF IFS 0.25° · BDPolicyLab haor EWSAs of 2026-08-23

Upstream 72h forecast

56.1 mm

Meghalaya catchment mean

Source: Open-Meteo ECMWF IFS 0.25°As of 2026-08-23

Pilot upazilas covered

Sunamganj and Habiganj

Source: BDPolicyLab haor early-warning collectorAs of 2026-08-23

By upazila

Harvest urgency, next 72 hours

State derived from upstream catchment-mean rainfall plus local haor rainfall. During the Boro harvest window, concurrent local rain above 25 mm over 72 hours bumps the state up one level, since rain delays harvest labour.

Source: Open-Meteo ECMWF IFS 0.25° · BDPolicyLab haor EWSAs of 2026-08-23

UpazilaDistrictStateLocal 72h rain

Sunamganj SadarSunamganjWatch83.5 mm

TahirpurSunamganjWatch81.4 mm

Jamalganj

7-day forecast

Daily rainfall, mean across grid points

Upstream column averages four Meghalaya grid points (Cherrapunji, Shillong south, Garo, Jaintia). Haor column averages five Bangladesh grid points across Sunamganj and Habiganj.

Source: Open-Meteo ECMWF IFS 0.25°As of 2026-08-23

DateUpstream rainfallHaor rainfall

2026-08-2318.0mm21.4mm

2026-08-2415.1mm16.3mm

2026-08-2512.2mm15.6mm

2026-08-2612.0mm15.3mm

Method

How the state is computed

Pull the hourly rainfall forecast from api.open-meteo.com for nine grid points (four in the upper Meghna catchment, five in the haor basin), model ECMWF IFS 0.25 deg.
Aggregate to 24h cumulative rainfall per grid point per day.
Sum the next 72 hours of upstream rainfall (catchment mean across the Meghalaya points). This is the surge driver.
Map the 72h upstream total to a four-state ladder: green, watch, advisory, warning. Thresholds 60, 120, 200 mm.
During the Boro harvest window (April 15 to May 31), if local haor rainfall over the same window exceeds 25 mm, bump the state up one level. Local rain delays harvest labour.
Refresh four times daily via the BDPolicyLab collector scheduler.

Source: Open-Meteo ECMWF IFS 0.25 deg, free for non-commercial use, no API key. Code: app/collectors/haor_weather.py, app/analysis/haor_ews.py.

Caveats

Read this as harvest urgency

This is a v0 heuristic, not a calibrated hydrological model. Upstream-rainfall thresholds are rules of thumb; replace with BWDB-station-calibrated routing in v1.
Operational warnings should ride on FFWC and Google Flood Hub. This page is a complementary, haor-specific decision-support layer for upazila Krishi offices.
Forecast skill at 72h is probabilistic, not deterministic. Treat the state as harvest urgency, not a flood guarantee.
Open-Meteo's ECMWF IFS is the same operational model behind ECMWF's own forecasts, updated four times daily.

Continue in Intelligence

Harvest urgency, next 72 hours

Daily rainfall, mean across grid points

How the state is computed

Read this as harvest urgency