Sovereign default scenario (% of GNI)
22.2%
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators · Observed through 2024-12-31
Macro-financial
Sovereign default scenario
সার্বভৌম খেলাপি দৃশ্য
Near-term outlook
Sovereign default scenario is classified Elevated at 22.2%, observed through 2024-12-31. That observation is about 21 months old. Assessment basis: External debt as a share of GNI, used as a proxy for sovereign-default vulnerability.
Evidence observed through 2024-12-31, about 21 months old (one observation per reference year, published about a year after the year ends).
Assessment
Elevated
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation. Benchmark stress score: 45/100.
Observed through
2024-12-31
Latest valid evidence date, about 21 months old.
Source: BDPolicyLab Crisis Orb · Updated 2026-10-11
Evidence
| Evidence | Reading | Observed through | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign default scenario (% of GNI) | 22.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank World Development IndicatorsDT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS |
Methodology and validation
The assessment compares the latest source observation with BDPolicyLab analytical monitoring bands. For this detector, higher readings indicate greater stress; the internal analytical cutoffs are 15.0%, 20.0%, 30.0%, 40.0%. The score is a level-anchored piecewise-linear transformation with state bands at 20, 40, 60, and 85. The indicator's primary source is identified with the evidence in this card. Forecast ranges are published only as calibrated 80% predictive intervals with an explicit source time unit.
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation.
No public forecast is shown because the validation or time-unit requirement was not met.