Sovereign default scenario (% of GNI)
22.2%
Source: World Bank World Development IndicatorsAs of 2024-12-31
Next steps
Macro-financial
Sovereign default scenario is classified Elevated at 22.2%, observed through 2024-12-31. Assessment basis: External debt as a share of GNI, used as a proxy for sovereign-default vulnerability.
Sovereign default scenario (% of GNI)
22.2%
Source: World Bank World Development IndicatorsAs of 2024-12-31
Assessment
Elevated
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation. Benchmark stress score: 45/100.
Source: BDPolicyLab assessmentAs of 2024-12-31
Movement
Unchanged
Current for source cadence
Source: BDPolicyLab comparable assessmentsAs of 24 Aug 2026, 01:25
Current for source cadence. Cadence basis: annual official series with publication lag.
Source: BDPolicyLab Crisis Orb Updated 2026-08-23
| Evidence | Reading | Observed through | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign default scenario (% of GNI) | 22.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank World Development IndicatorsDT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS |
Comparable assessments
Current movement: Unchanged
Elevated
25 Jul 2026, 04:03 to 24 Aug 2026, 01:25
337 comparable assessments.
Decision architecture
These are linked records, not recommendations. They identify documented responsibility, published policy work, and modelled instruments that have passed their respective public gates.
Owns
Budget preparation, public finance management, and government accounting
Authority: Constitution of Bangladesh, Article 55; Rules of Business 1996
Monitors
Central bank of Bangladesh responsible for monetary policy, foreign exchange reserve management, banking sector regulation and supervision, currency issuance, and financial stability
Authority: Bangladesh Bank Order 1972 (President's Order No. 127 of 1972)
Grounded prescription
Sovereign Default Prevention: A Reserve-Floor and IMF-Compliance Tripwire for BangladeshA standing early-warning and contingency regime led by the Ministry of Finance to keep Bangladesh clear of the twin sovereign-default trigger, reserves below three months of import cover combined with an IMF programme breach.
Research · Related
Remittance Flows and Household Welfare in BangladeshThe assessment compares the latest source observation with BDPolicyLab analytical monitoring bands. For this detector, higher readings indicate greater stress; the internal analytical cutoffs are 15.0%, 20.0%, 30.0%, 40.0%. The score is a level-anchored piecewise-linear transformation with state bands at 20, 40, 60, and 85. The indicator's primary source is identified with the evidence in this card. Forecast ranges are published only as calibrated 80% predictive intervals with an explicit source time unit.
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation.
No public forecast is shown because the validation or time-unit requirement was not met.
Research · Primary
The State of Bangladesh BankingResearch · Primary
The State of Bangladesh Financial InclusionResearch · Primary
The State of Bangladesh Prices & InflationResearch · Related
The State of Bangladesh Public FinanceResearch · Related
The State of Bangladesh RemittancesBasis: Budget appropriation; execution governed by the Public Procurement Act 2006 (Act XXIV of 2006) and Public Procurement Rules 2008.
Model limits
Basis: Fertiliser, power, gas and food subsidies appear as budget lines rather than under a single statute. Converting an outlay into a consumer-price change needs the subsidised volume and the unsubsidised reference price, neither of which is in the lake.
Model limits