Sovereign default scenario [short]
সার্বভৌম খেলাপি দৃশ্য
Macro-financial
state
elevated
score
44.5
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 18.14 to 25.50 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wb external debt pct gni | 22.25 | - | 1.00 | 2024-12-31 |
Notes
sovereign_default: Sovereign default scenario (% of GNI) 22.2% (as of 2024-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. IMF-World Bank LIC Debt Sustainability Framework (2018 Guidance Note, Table 3): PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP thresholds: weak=30%, medium=40%, strong=55%. For nominal total external debt/GNI (this indicator), bands are set conservatively Forecast (naive, 25 obs): 20.7% in +3 steps; indicative range [18.1%, 25.5%] (interval coverage not validated, measured 48%). Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.