Dhaka in-migration overload [short]
ঢাকায় অভিবাসন চাপ
Demography
state
elevated
score
52.2
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 3.42 to 4.11 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wb sp urb grow | 2.82 | - | 1.00 | 2024-12-31 |
Notes
dhaka_in_migration: Dhaka in-migration overload (annual urban population growth rate (%)) 2.8% (as of 2024-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. World Bank WDI SP.URB.GROW: global average 1.72% (2024); UN-Habitat / World Urbanization Prospects 2025: LMIC average ~2.5%, Sub-Saharan Africa ~4% (high-stress, associated with rapid slum formation), >5% seen only in acute conflict/displac Forecast (local_linear_trend, 25 obs): 3.6% in +3 steps; indicative range [3.4%, 4.1%] (interval coverage not validated, measured 58%). Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.