Road-traffic injuries [short]
সড়ক দুর্ঘটনা
Public health
state
elevated
score
53.2
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 14.32 to 15.28 (80% interval, coverage validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wb sh sta traf p5 | 15.30 | - | 1.00 | 2019-12-31 |
Notes
road_traffic_injury: Road-traffic injuries (deaths per 100,000 population) 15.3 per 100k (as of 2019-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2023 (https://www.who.int/teams/social-determinants-of-health/safety-and-mobility/global-status-report-on-road-safety-2023): global average 15/100k (2021); high-income country average ~8/100k; low-inc Forecast (naive, 20 obs): 15.0 per 100k in +3 steps; 80% interval [14.3 per 100k, 15.3 per 100k] (coverage validated at 88%). P(crosses the warning line within +3) = 0% Interval coverage validated; these are band-crossing likelihoods of the indicator against its benchmark line, not a validated crisis probability.