Govt gross debt (percent of GDP)
42.0%
Source: International Monetary Fund DataMapperAs of 2025-12-31
Next steps
Macro-financial
Public debt sustainability is classified Watch at 42.0%, observed through 2025-12-31.
Govt gross debt (percent of GDP)
42.0%
Source: International Monetary Fund DataMapperAs of 2025-12-31
Assessment
Watch
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation. Benchmark stress score: 23/100.
Source: BDPolicyLab assessmentAs of 2025-12-31
Movement
Unchanged
Current for source cadence
Source: BDPolicyLab comparable assessmentsAs of 24 Aug 2026, 01:25
Current for source cadence. Cadence basis: annual official series with publication lag.
Source: BDPolicyLab Crisis Orb Updated 2026-08-23
| Evidence | Reading | Observed through | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Govt gross debt (percent of GDP) | 42.0% | 2025-12-31 | International Monetary Fund DataMapper |
Comparable assessments
Current movement: Unchanged
Watch
25 Jul 2026, 04:03 to 24 Aug 2026, 01:25
341 comparable assessments.
Decision architecture
These are linked records, not recommendations. They identify documented responsibility, published policy work, and modelled instruments that have passed their respective public gates.
Owns
Budget preparation, public finance management, and government accounting
Authority: Constitution of Bangladesh, Article 55; Rules of Business 1996
Monitors
Foreign aid coordination, development partner relations, and external economic cooperation
Authority: Constitution of Bangladesh, Article 55; Rules of Business 1996
Grounded prescription
Manage the maturity wall, not just the debt-service bill: a rollover-risk early-warning system for Bangladesh public debtBangladesh manages a structural debt risk (maturity concentration and rollover, distinct from cash-flow debt-service) with no public instrument to see it; MoF should build a redemption-calendar dashboard, then smooth the maturity wall via issuance design and liability management under a medium-term debt/GDP anchor.
Research · Related
The State of Bangladesh Public FinanceThe assessment compares the latest source observation with BDPolicyLab analytical monitoring bands. For this detector, higher readings indicate greater stress; the internal analytical cutoffs are 40.0%, 55.0%, 70.0%, 90.0%. The score is a level-anchored piecewise-linear transformation with state bands at 20, 40, 60, and 85. Benchmark reference: Bands anchored to IMF debt-sustainability risk thresholds for emerging and developing economies. The indicator's primary source is identified with the evidence in this card. Forecast ranges are published only as calibrated 80% predictive intervals with an explicit source time unit.
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation.
No public forecast is shown because the validation or time-unit requirement was not met.
Basis: Budget appropriation; execution governed by the Public Procurement Act 2006 (Act XXIV of 2006) and Public Procurement Rules 2008.
Model limits
Basis: Fertiliser, power, gas and food subsidies appear as budget lines rather than under a single statute. Converting an outlay into a consumer-price change needs the subsidised volume and the unsubsidised reference price, neither of which is in the lake.
Model limits