Public debt sustainability [short]
সরকারি ঋণের স্থায়িত্ব
Macro-financial
state
watch
score
22.7
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 43.18 to 52.48 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Govt gross debt (% of GDP) | 42.0% | - | 1.00 | 2025-12-31 |
Notes
public_debt_sustainability: Govt gross debt (percent of GDP) 42.0% (as of 2025-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. Bands anchored to IMF debt-sustainability risk thresholds for emerging and developing economies. Forecast (local_linear_trend, 23 obs): 47.7% in +3 steps; indicative range [43.2%, 52.5%] (interval coverage not validated, measured 45%). Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.