Reserves (months of imports)
3.91 months
Source: Bangladesh Bank, National Summary Data PageAs of 2025-12-31
Next steps
Macro-financial
External / BoP / FX is classified Watch at 3.91 months, observed through 2025-12-31.
Reserves (months of imports)
3.91 months
Source: Bangladesh Bank, National Summary Data PageAs of 2025-12-31
Assessment
Watch
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation. Benchmark stress score: 22/100.
Source: BDPolicyLab assessmentAs of 2025-12-31
Movement
Unchanged
Stale observation
Source: BDPolicyLab comparable assessmentsAs of 24 Aug 2026, 01:25
Stale observation. Cadence basis: monthly official release.
Source: BDPolicyLab Crisis Orb Updated 2026-08-23
| Evidence | Reading | Observed through | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.91 months | 2025-12-31 | Bangladesh Bank, National Summary Data Page |
Comparable assessments
Current movement: Unchanged
Watch
25 Jul 2026, 04:03 to 24 Aug 2026, 01:25
343 comparable assessments.
Historical assessments are replayed at point-in-time snapshots, with labelled episodes shown where available.
Decision architecture
These are linked records, not recommendations. They identify documented responsibility, published policy work, and modelled instruments that have passed their respective public gates.
Owns
Central bank of Bangladesh responsible for monetary policy, foreign exchange reserve management, banking sector regulation and supervision, currency issuance, and financial stability
Authority: Bangladesh Bank Order 1972 (President's Order No. 127 of 1972)
Monitors
Budget preparation, public finance management, and government accounting
Authority: Constitution of Bangladesh, Article 55; Rules of Business 1996
Grounded prescription
Stop the Reserve Bleed: A Market-Clearing Taka and a Credible External AnchorA sequenced MoF-led plan to halt reserve drawdown, correct REER misalignment, and close the current-account gap through a credible market-clearing exchange rate, reserve transparency, and remittance-channel reform.
Research · Related
Remittance Flows and Household Welfare in BangladeshThe assessment compares the latest source observation with BDPolicyLab analytical monitoring bands. For this detector, lower readings indicate greater stress; the internal analytical cutoffs are 1.00 months, 2.00 months, 3.00 months, 4.00 months. The score is a level-anchored piecewise-linear transformation with state bands at 20, 40, 60, and 85. Benchmark reference: Bands anchored to the IMF 3-months-of-imports reserve adequacy benchmark. The indicator's primary source is identified with the evidence in this card. Forecast ranges are published only as calibrated 80% predictive intervals with an explicit source time unit.
BDPolicyLab analytical classification based on the stated assessment basis. It is not an official agency designation.
No public forecast is shown because the validation or time-unit requirement was not met.
Research · Primary
Research · Primary
The State of Bangladesh Financial InclusionResearch · Primary
The State of Bangladesh Prices & InflationResearch · Related
The State of Bangladesh Public FinanceResearch · Related
The State of Bangladesh RemittancesBasis: Budget appropriation; execution governed by the Public Procurement Act 2006 (Act XXIV of 2006) and Public Procurement Rules 2008.
Model limits
Basis: Fertiliser, power, gas and food subsidies appear as budget lines rather than under a single statute. Converting an outlay into a consumer-price change needs the subsidised volume and the unsubsidised reference price, neither of which is in the lake.
Model limits