External / BoP / FX [short]
বৈদেশিক মুদ্রার চাপ
Macro-financial
state
watch
score
38.5
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 0.89 to 5.80 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Historical replay
The detector's composite score replayed at monthly point-in-time snapshots, with labeled historical episodes shaded. Where the line crosses elevated or warning inside a shaded band, that's an in-sample hit; before the band, a lead-time signal.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.07 mo | - | 1.00 | 2024-12-31 |
Notes
bop_fx: Reserves (months of imports) 3.07 months (as of 2024-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. Bands anchored to the IMF 3-months-of-imports reserve adequacy benchmark. Forecast (naive, 25 obs): 3.60 months in +3 steps; indicative range [0.89 months, 5.80 months] (interval coverage not validated, measured 44%). Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.