How good is each of the brain's forecasts against reality?

The brain publishes a forecast only when its method beat a naive baseline out of sample, such as the same month last year, last year's rate or a district's own average, under a protocol committed before any scoring, with 80% intervals that held. Most methods tried so far failed that test, so most of what the brain has built stays a backtest: its scores are shown, its forecasts are not. A forecast published live is written to an append-only, hash-chained log before its outcome exists and scored here when the outcome is published, so its record cannot be edited afterwards.

Across the backtests below, 0 of 0 candidate model rows passed their gate. Statuses as of 11 Oct 2026:

0Live Logged before the outcome existed, published, and scored here when the outcome arrives.
0Published, not logged A publish verdict with a target still open, but the forecasts were not logged before their outcomes, so they cannot be scored live.
0Backtest only A model passed its gate, but every forecast target has passed: backtest scores only.
7Withheld No model beat the best baseline under the pre-registered gate: backtest scores only.
0Not validated The method failed its pre-registered gate: backtest scores only, nothing published.
1Not published (logging) Pre-registered with its live log open, but no forecast origin exists yet: nothing is logged, scored or published.

District neonatal mortality rate (NMR), one to three months ahead

Withheld

What will each district's facility-reported neonatal mortality rate be in the months DGHS has not printed yet?

No gate verdict is served on this server. Registered as live; the files served here say withheld.

Pre-registration: Filed 24 Sep 2026, 17:56 UTC. Committed before any model was fitted or scored; an erratum was recorded. Protocol on the product page
Target: NMR as printed by the DGHS RMNCH Scorecard for a district and month (0.0 treated as missing); nowcasts of months the source had not printed when the forecast was logged.
Gate: Beats the best of three baselines (seasonal naive, last value, district mean) on MAE in both the development and the test window, 80% interval coverage within 0.65 to 0.95, at least 12 test origins per horizon.
Baselines: Seasonal naive (same month last year); Last observed value; District mean to date.

Backtest skill against the baselines

Backtest not served on this server: lane B4 tables not readable on this server: twin_health_gate.parquet.

Live record

no live log is configured on this server

Open Health early warning

District Full Vaccination coverage, one to three months ahead

Withheld

Which districts' Full Vaccination coverage will fall below 80%?

No gate verdict is served on this server. Registered as not validated; the files served here say withheld.

Pre-registration: Filed 24 Sep 2026, 17:56 UTC. Committed before any model was fitted or scored; an erratum was recorded. Protocol on the product page
Target: Full Vaccination coverage (% as printed, can exceed 100) for a district and month.
Gate: Beats the best of three baselines (seasonal naive, last value, district mean) on MAE in both the development and the test window, 80% interval coverage within 0.65 to 0.95, at least 12 test origins per horizon.
Baselines: Seasonal naive (same month last year); Last observed value; District mean to date.

Backtest skill against the baselines

Backtest not served on this server: lane B4 tables not readable on this server: twin_health_gate.parquet.

Live record

No live log: this problem's forecasts were never logged before their outcomes, so none can be scored live.

Open Health early warning

Monthly actual spending by ministry and division (P2)

Withheld

What will each ministry's operating and development spending be in the next one to three months?

Prediction-run citation is unavailable or broken. Registered as backtest only; the files served here say withheld.

Protocol recorded after the fact; not a pre-registration: The protocol is the text of the project plan dated 23 Sep 2026, added after scoring; no pre-registration was committed before scoring. Protocol on the product page
Target: Monthly actuals in Tk crore per printed operating or development line of the Finance Division's monthly fiscal report.
Gate: MAE below seasonal naive out of sample (horizons 1 to 3 pooled), 80% interval coverage within 0.65 to 0.95, at least 12 origins.
Baselines: Seasonal naive (same month last year).

Backtest skill against the baselines

Backtest not served on this server: prediction run has no matching artifact pin; see prediction_run.

Live record

No live log: this problem's forecasts were never logged before their outcomes, so none can be scored live.

Open Predict: P2

e-GP contract awards per month (P5a)

Withheld

How many contracts will be awarded on e-GP next month, nationally, by ministry and by district?

Prediction-run citation is unavailable or broken. Registered as backtest only; the files served here say withheld.

Protocol recorded after the fact; not a pre-registration: The protocol is the text of the project plan dated 23 Sep 2026, added after scoring; no pre-registration was committed before scoring. Protocol on the product page
Target: Count of deduplicated e-GP awards dated in the month, per series as printed.
Gate: MAE below seasonal naive out of sample (horizons 1 to 3 pooled), 80% interval coverage within 0.65 to 0.95, at least 12 origins.
Baselines: Seasonal naive (same month last year).

Backtest skill against the baselines

Backtest not served on this server: prediction run has no matching artifact pin; see prediction_run.

Live record

no registry log is configured on this server

Open Predict: P5a

ADP execution by ministry at year-end, from the IMED monthly edition (P3b)

Withheld

Which ministries will under-spend their ADP allocation by the end of the fiscal year?

Prediction-run citation is unavailable or broken.

Pre-registration: Filed 24 Sep 2026, 12:22 UTC. Committed before scoring. Protocol on the product page
Target: June expenditure over the June allocation per ministry or division, as IMED prints it.
Gate: MAE below the best baseline (last year's rate; even spread and seasonal naive also shown) on the development and the final fiscal year, 80% interval coverage within 0.65 to 0.95, at least 12 origins, and the served origin month's own check.
Baselines: Last year's rate; Even spread through the year; Seasonal naive (same month last year).

Backtest skill against the baselines

Backtest not served on this server: prediction run has no matching artifact pin; see prediction_run.

Live record

No live log: this problem's forecasts were never logged before their outcomes, so none can be scored live.

Open Predict: P3b board

ADP execution at year-end, from the April edition on (P3b-late)

Withheld

From the April edition on, which ministries will under-spend their ADP allocation by year-end?

Prediction-run citation is unavailable or broken.

Pre-registration: Filed 24 Sep 2026, 13:44 UTC. Committed before any Finance Division back year was scored. Protocol on the product page
Target: June expenditure over the June allocation per ministry, forecast from months 9, 10 and 11.
Gate: MAE below last year's rate on the unseen Finance Division years (FY2014-15 and FY2015-16, each year too), 80% coverage within 0.65 to 0.95, at least 12 origins and 12 interval targets.
Baselines: Last year's rate; Even spread through the year; Seasonal naive (same month last year).

Backtest skill against the baselines

Backtest not served on this server: prediction run has no matching artifact pin; see prediction_run.

Live record

No live log: this problem's forecasts were never logged before their outcomes, so none can be scored live.

Open Predict: P3b-late board

Quarterly real GDP growth nowcast from Bangladesh Bank's monthly indicators

Withheld

How fast is Bangladesh's economy growing in the quarter BBS has not printed yet?

No gate verdict is served on this server. Registered as live; the files served here say withheld.

Pre-registration: Filed 25 Sep 2026, 00:40 UTC. Committed before any model was fitted or scored; amendment 1 (25 Sep 2026, 00:44 UTC, also before any score) reads every predictor as of the origin. Protocol on the product page
Target: Y-o-y growth of quarterly real GDP at constant 2015-16 prices as BBS prints it: the latest print in the backtest, the first print (the release named for the quarter) for live nowcasts.
Gate: Pooled MAE below the best of three baselines (last value, historical mean, AR(1)) on the common scored origins within 2019-20 Q1 to 2025-26 Q3 and in the final window from 2023-24 Q1, 80% interval coverage within 0.65 to 0.95, at least 16 common origins.
Baselines: Last observed value; Historical mean of GDP growth; AR(1) on GDP growth.

Backtest skill against the baselines

Backtest not served on this server: lane BR3's lake is not configured on this server (TWIN_BR3_LAKE_DIR unset).

Live record

No live log: this problem's forecasts were never logged before their outcomes, so none can be scored live.

Open Economy nowcast

DGDA medicine price per unit by generic, one to three months ahead (P6)

Not published (logging)

What will the DGDA maximum retail price per unit of each generic medicine be in the next three months?

The P6 series is not served on this server: TWIN_PREDLIVE_LAKE_DIR is not set on this server.

Last checked: Not known: the live record is not served on this server (TWIN_PREDLIVE_LAKE_DIR is not set on this server).
Next due: Not known: the live record is not served on this server (TWIN_PREDLIVE_LAKE_DIR is not set on this server).

Pre-registration: Filed 1 Oct 2026, 03:02 UTC. Committed before the series builder existed, before any model was fitted and before anything was scored. Protocol on the product page
Target: Monthly median unit price (Tk per unit) per generic over a fixed basket of DGDA products seen in at least 2 fetch runs, from DGDA's price-detail pages as fetched.
Gate: MAE below seasonal naive (pooled across generics, horizons 1 to 3 pooled), 80% interval coverage within 0.65 to 0.95, at least 12 distinct origin months; a seasonal-naive MAE of 0 withholds.
Baselines: Last observed value; Seasonal naive (same month last year).

Backtest skill against the baselines

No backtest: the pre-registered gate needs 12 origin months and no origin exists yet.