Buy the days before the water

Diagnosis

The hazard in scope is the pre-monsoon flash flood in the Sunamganj and Sylhet haor, the seasonal wetland basins of the northeast. This is a fast-onset, event-class hazard operated as a nowcast: the gap between an upstream rainfall signal and floodwater arriving in the haor is measured in hours and a few days, not weeks. The single most exposed asset is the boro paddy crop, which is harvested in this same pre-monsoon window. When the water arrives before the harvest, a year of food and household income is lost in a single event, and the loss falls on a population whose only embankments are the seasonal submersible dykes that protect the standing crop.

The lead responsible body is the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), per the GovTwin entity registry. The current operational state for this hazard is not wired to a live indicator (current_state is null). That is itself the first finding: a nowcast hazard with no standing real-time trigger means the warning-to-action chain is improvised every season rather than pre-agreed. The policy task is not to predict the flood better in the abstract. It is to convert whatever warning lead time exists into financed, pre-positioned action before the water arrives.

Recommended actions

1. Stand up a standing flash flood early-action protocol for the haor. Owner: MoDMR, through its Department of Disaster Management. Mechanism: a written trigger protocol, issued as a MoDMR circular, that pre-defines who acts, on what signal, with what money, for the Sunamganj and Sylhet haor specifically. Observable signal it is working: a published, dated protocol exists before the season opens, naming the trigger source and the responsible officer at district and upazila level.
2. Wire the missing real-time trigger. Owner: MoDMR in coordination with the flood forecasting and warning function of the Bangladesh Water Development Board. Mechanism: connect upstream rainfall and water-level forecasting into a single haor nowcast feed that fires a graded alert (watch, then act) to district administration. Observable signal: the current_state for this hazard moves from null to a live, dated value that district officers can see and act on.
3. Pre-finance the early action, do not wait for post-flood relief. Owner: MoDMR, with the Ministry of Finance. Mechanism: a ring-fenced early-action budget line that releases automatically when the protocol trigger fires, paying for emergency harvest labor, boats, and crop evacuation before impact, rather than only funding relief after losses. Observable signal: funds disburse on the trigger date, not after a damage assessment.
4. Pre-position harvest and evacuation capacity on the submersible dyke network. Owner: MoDMR district and upazila disaster committees, with the local agriculture extension office. Mechanism: pre-season stockpiling of harvesting equipment, designated boats, and labor crews near the highest-risk haors, activated by the watch-level alert. Observable signal: equipment and crews are in place before, not after, the act-level trigger.
5. Run a mandatory after-season review. Owner: MoDMR. Mechanism: a fixed post-monsoon debrief that compares trigger times against actual flood arrival and crop losses, feeding corrections into next season's circular. Observable signal: each season's protocol cites the prior season's review.

Sequencing (first 12 months)

First, before the next pre-monsoon season, MoDMR issues the trigger protocol circular (action 1). This is the cheapest, fastest step and it unlocks everything else, because it forces the trigger source, the budget authority, and the named officers to be decided on paper rather than in the crisis. Second, in parallel, wire the real-time feed (action 2) so the protocol has a signal to fire on. Third, secure the pre-financed budget line with the Ministry of Finance (action 3) so that when the trigger fires, money moves the same day. Pre-positioning (action 4) is then executed within the season, and the after-season review (action 5) closes the loop and sets the agenda for year two.

Risks and constraints

The binding constraint is fiscal and procedural, not technical. Pre-financing early action requires the Ministry of Finance to release money on a forecast, before any damage is confirmed, which cuts against standard post-event relief practice and audit habits. Without that pre-agreement, the protocol degrades into another warning that no one is funded to act on. The second constraint is institutional coordination: the warning function and the response function sit in different bodies, and a nowcast hazard fails at the handoff between them unless one circular names the handoff explicitly.

Bottom line

The haor flash flood cannot be stopped, but the days of warning before it can be bought back as harvested crop and evacuated households if MoDMR converts a vague seasonal alert into a financed, pre-agreed early-action protocol. The decisive move is the protocol circular plus a pre-financed budget line that releases on the trigger, so that money and crews move before the water, not after the loss.