Daily Advisor

Situation

As of 8:00 PM on 19 August 2026, Excelerate LNG FSRU supplied 0 mmcfd, down from around 100 mmcfd earlier in the day and against a regular design capability of 600 mmcfd [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026]. Total national gas supply dropped to 2,185 mmcfd, creating an immediate average supply shortfall of about 500 mmcfd relative to normal distribution levels [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026]. The supply loss is colliding with an already strained power system. Power Grid Bangladesh data reported that 82 out of 143 power plants were either shut down or generating below capacity due to fuel shortages and maintenance [The Daily Star, 18 August 2026]. With peak power demand estimated at 17,000 to 17,500 MW and available generation limited to 15,380 to 16,000 MW, persistent rotating load shedding is already underway across regional distribution grids [The Daily Star, 18 August 2026]. This is a fuel security event, not only a terminal outage.

Evidence

Total daily gas supply fell below 2,200 mmcfd against an estimated national demand of approximately 3,800 mmcfd, widening the overall demand supply gap to roughly 1,600 mmcfd [The Daily Star, 19 August 2026]. Domestic gas fields supplied 1,624 mmcfd as of 8:00 PM on 19 August 2026, and Summit LNG FSRU supplied 561 mmcfd while operating as the sole operational LNG terminal in the country [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026]. Excelerate LNG FSRU was at 0 mmcfd, down from around 100 mmcfd earlier in the day and far below its regular design capability of 600 mmcfd [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026]. Normal combined send-out typically averages 1,000 mmcfd; with Excelerate down, imported gas deliveries fell to around 56 to 57 percent of normal LNG throughput [Daily Times of Bangladesh, 19 August 2026]. Four LNG cargoes procured outside regular tenders through direct purchases to secure lower prices were scheduled to arrive in August 2026, but none had arrived by mid-August, leaving Excelerate without feedstock despite being operationally ready [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026]. An LNG cargo was scheduled to dock at the Summit terminal on 20 August 2026 [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026]. The next consignment intended for Excelerate is slated for 23 August 2026 [RPGCL statement, 20 August 2026].

Prescription

First, RPGCL should direct the cargo scheduled to dock at Summit on 20 August 2026 into immediate discharge and regasification, with no berthing delay [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026]. The mechanism is a same-day terminal instruction from RPGCL to Summit LNG, followed by immediate send-out into the national grid.

Second, RPGCL should prepare Excelerate for the 23 August 2026 consignment by confirming the berthing window, completing pre-discharge checks, and clearing port and customs documentation before arrival [RPGCL statement, 20 August 2026]. The mechanism is a cargo readiness checklist tied to the terminal's operational status, since Excelerate is operationally ready but lacks feedstock [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026].

Third, Power Grid Bangladesh should publish a daily merit order dispatch for the 143 power plants, using available generation of 15,380 to 16,000 MW to allocate load shedding across regional distribution grids until gas pressure recovers [The Daily Star, 18 August 2026]. The mechanism is a transparent PGCB dispatch schedule that matches each gas allocation to the highest-value generating units.

Fourth, the energy line ministry and Bangladesh Bank should verify payment and letter of credit documentation for the direct purchase cargoes before the next berthing window. The mechanism is a pre-arrival finance clearance review for the four direct purchase cargoes scheduled for August 2026 [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026].

Fifth, the industry line ministry should issue a temporary curtailment order for non-critical industrial gas off-takers through 23 August 2026, redirecting available gas to power generation and critical industrial processes [RPGCL statement, 20 August 2026]. The mechanism is a gas allocation order, not a price signal, because the binding constraint is physical supply.

Risks and tradeoffs

The binding constraint is cargo timing. The four direct purchase cargoes were procured outside regular tenders to secure lower prices, but none had arrived by mid-August, leaving Excelerate without feedstock despite operational readiness [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026]. If the 23 August 2026 consignment slips, the system remains dependent on Summit LNG as the sole operational terminal, currently supplying 561 mmcfd [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026; RPGCL statement, 20 August 2026]. Imported gas throughput has already fallen to around 56 to 57 percent of normal LNG throughput [Daily Times of Bangladesh, 19 August 2026]. The power system has little spare capacity: 82 out of 143 power plants are shut or below capacity, and available generation is 15,380 to 16,000 MW against peak demand of 17,000 to 17,500 MW [The Daily Star, 18 August 2026]. Gas rationing will protect grid stability but may compress industrial output, and the tradeoff is unavoidable because total supply is 2,185 mmcfd against an estimated demand of around 3,800 mmcfd [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026; The Daily Star, 19 August 2026]. A sequenced restart reduces the risk of an unplanned blackout but does not eliminate the shortfall until both terminals are sending out gas.

Bottom line

Bangladesh is managing a supply loss of about 500 mmcfd with only one operational LNG terminal, leaving a demand supply gap of roughly 1,600 mmcfd [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026; The Daily Star, 19 August 2026]. The immediate task is to execute the 20 August Summit docking and the 23 August Excelerate consignment while PGCB allocates load shedding and the energy line ministry rations non-critical gas use [The Business Standard, 19 August 2026; RPGCL statement, 20 August 2026].